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The Coronavirus pandemic is likely going to last till 2022 until 60% to 70% of the population has been infected, a team of longstanding pandemic experts predicted in a new .

 

The experts said because of its ability to spread from people who don’t appear to be ill, the virus may be harder to control than influenza.

 

They recommended that the US, who have the highest cases of the disease and deaths should prepare for a worst-case scenario that includes a second big wave of Coronavirus infections in the and winter.

 

Even in a best-case scenario, people will continue to die from the virus, they predicted.

 

“This thing’s not going to stop until it infects 60 to 70 percent of people,” Mike Osterholm, who directs the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the of Minnesota, told CNN.

 

“The idea that this is going to be done soon defies microbiology.

 

According to CNN, Mr. Osterholm wrote the report along with Harvard of Public Health epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, who is also a top expert on pandemics; Dr. Kristine Moore, a former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention epidemiologist who is now medical director for CIDRAP; and historian John Barry, who wrote the 2004 book “The Great Influenza” about the 1918 flu pandemic.

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Because Covid-19 is new, no one has any immunity, they said. “The length of the pandemic will likely be 18 to 24 months, as herd immunity gradually develops in the human population,” they wrote.

 

“I have said for a long time that when you are trying to understand how infectious disease is going to unfold, you should rely on history as well as ,” Lipsitch told CNN. For instance, pandemic infections don’t tend to die down in the summer, like seasonal flu does., he said.

 

Covid-19 is most comparable to a pandemic strain of influenza, they said.

 

“Because of a longer incubation period, more asymptomatic spread, and a higher R0, COVID-19 appears to spread more easily than flu,” they wrote in the report. R0 is the average number of other people infected by each patient.

 

“A higher R0 means more people will need to get infected and become immune before the pandemic can end,” they add. “Based on the most recent flu pandemics, this outbreak will likely last 18 to 24 months.”

 

They said government officials should stop telling people the pandemic could be ending and instead prepare citizens for a long haul.

 

Three scenarios are possible, they said:

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Scenario 1: The first wave of Covid-19 in 2020 is followed by a series of repetitive smaller waves that occur through the summer and then consistently over a one- to two-year period, gradually diminishing sometime in 2021

 

Scenario 2: The first wave of Covid-19 is followed by a larger wave in the fall or winter and one or more smaller waves in 2021. “This pattern will require the reinstitution of mitigation measures in the fall in an attempt to drive down spread of infection and prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed,” they wrote. “This pattern is similar to what was seen with the 1918-19 pandemic.”

 

Scenario 3: A “slow burn” of ongoing transmission. “This third scenario likely would not require the reinstitution of mitigation measures, although cases and deaths will continue to occur.”

 

States and territories should plan for scenario 2, the worst-case scenario, they recommended.

 

“Government officials should develop concrete plans, including triggers for reinstituting mitigation measures, for dealing with disease peaks when they occur,” they advised.

 

Lipsitch and Osterholm both said they are surprised by the decisions many states are making to lift restrictions aimed at controlling the spread of the virus.

 

“I think it’s an experiment. It’s an experiment that likely will cost lives, especially in places that do it without careful controls to try to figure out when to try to slow things down again,” Lipsitch said.

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A vaccine could help, the report said, but not quickly. “The course of the pandemic also could be influenced by a vaccine; however, a vaccine will likely not be available until at least sometime in 2021,” they wrote.

 

“And we don’t know what kinds of challenges could arise during vaccine development that could delay the timeline.”

 

Globally, there are 3,322,661 cases of Coronavirus with 234,408 deaths and 1,050,408 recoveries at as 11:23 am Friday, May 1, 2020.

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Abass Sulaiman Adegoke, well known as Adegoke is a student of Federal Polytechnic Ede studying Civil Engineering, He is a media enthusiast, loves traveling, and has a special interest in personal development.

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Health

WHO urges safety as African airlines begin operation

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The World Health Organization (WHO) has called for caution as African airlines begin operations in various countries.
The WHO said strict measures should be observed to prevent surges in Coronavirus infections.
The organisation urged governments to ensure airlines take the information of passengers travelling and follow up with them to prevent outbreaks.
The WHO Regional Director for Africa Dr. Matshidiso Moeti said air travel was important for the economy but “new normal still requires stringent measures to stem the spread of Covid-19”.

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The organisation advised airport officials to ensure social distancing, hand washing, and sanitisation.
The WHO says Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Tanzania, and Zambia have already resumed commercial flights.
Tunisia re-opened its airspace to commercial flights on 27 June.
The organisation cited a surge in Seychelles related to travel “in the last week, 66 new cases – all crew members of an international fishing vessel – have been recorde

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Health

Eight FMC workers test positive for COVID-19 in Ogun

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No fewer than eight health workers at the Federal Medical Centre, Idi -Aba , Abeokuta have tested positive for the coronavirus .
The health workers who consisted of medical doctors , nurses , and administrative staff were said to have attended to a two- and- half- year -old COVID – 19 patient currently receiving treatment at the centre ’s isolation ward.
Head , Public Relations , and Information , Segun Orisajo , confirmed this on Friday in a statement .
Orisajo said the status of the affected health workers was detected due to the contact tracing carried out by the hospital Infection Control Team .
He said , “The affected staff were part of the team which had contact with a two and a half – year- old coronavirus positive toddler currently receiving treatment at the Centre ’s Isolation ward.
“The COVID – 19 positive status of the affected staff was detected during the round of contact tracing carried out by the hospital Infection Control Team .”
He added that none of the affected staff had so far shown the symptoms of the virus.
According to Orisajo , the Medical Director , Prof . Adewale Musa -Olomu , said although all of the affected staff are asymptomatic , they have been asked to proceed on self -isolation and basic treatment commenced for theHe added that the Medical Director prayed for the quick recovery of the staff .
He expressed confidence that they will soon return to their duty posts.
He reiterated his earlier assurances about the safety of the centre , both for the workers and patients .
The Management of the hospital had shut down the Children Emergency Ward in the facility after the two- year -old girl was tested positive to COVID – 19

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